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Freedom Chatter Blog – Public Policies

I Have My Limits

Thursday, March 4th, 2010

When it comes to listening or reading bad economics, I have my limits.  I have thought about penning daily responses to the various bootlicking hacks that operate in the blogosphere, most notably Krugman’s little sister Berkeley economist Brad DeLong.  Too bad I have discovered there is a limit to how much nonsense I can take.

The other day on DeLong’s blog, Brad was reviewing an article summarizing the struggles currently facing our economy.  Among the author’s conclusion was that if wages were allowed to fall, the economy would be in much better shape going forward.  DeLong, like every good scientific socialist, is a champion of shedding crocodile tears for the working man.  He rejected that idea.  What solution does he propose instead?  If you guessed “bigger deficits,” you get a star.  In typical Keynesian fashion he reasons that running larger deficits would boost employment and aggregate demand without the nasty trade-off of reducing “real wages.”

Stop right there.

Before we can understand why DeLong is misguided it’s important to understand the Keynesian view of The Great Depression.  So as not to take apart a strawman, feel free to add a correction if needed in the comment section.  In the typical Keynesian view, Hoover was a laissez faire “do nothing” President.  Often, you will hear DeLong call him a “liquidationist,” a supposedly derogatory term that means he wanted to liquidate the bad assets.  According to Keynesians, the market could not self correct because wage earners did not or could not find work at lower wages (”sticky wages.”)  Along comes FDR, he solves the sticky wages problem by running a huge federal deficit, employing millions in public works programs, and the economy starts to turn around by 1937.  Then FDR makes the mistake of reducing the deficit, caving to the “nihilists” that were worried about spending, and the economy tanks again.  Only the massive federal spending of the war brought America out of Depression.

That’s pretty much the story. So what’s wrong with this picture?

1. The idea that Hoover was a liquidationist comes not from Hoover, but from Hoover’s aides, many of whom urged Hoover to allow the market to self-correct.  In his memoirs, Hoover brags about how he ignored them and ran up the deficit anyway.  Hacks like DeLong and Krugman like to quote the people around Hoover to imply that Hoover acted the same way.  Hoover was a proud Progressive, a hyperinterventionist, and at every level of government service he attempted to meddle in the economy.  Hoover ran the largest deficit in American history up to that point.  FDR actually campaigned against Hoover’s deficits, claiming that Hoover’s administration was out of control. 

Here are 21 Hoover interventions that helped turn the depression of 1929-1930 into The Great Depression.  I urge you to click the link in the previous sentence if you are under the impression that Hoover was a do-nothing President.

2. The second sticking point in the Keynesian story is that the economy was turning around by 1937.  This might be true. It might not be true.  But is that really a great story?  Compare that with the Depression of 1920-1921.  In 1920, the economy contracted at a sharper rate than in late 1929-1930.  President Harding slashed federal spending and the economy fully recovered in less than two years. That doesn’t fit very well with the Keynesian story.  How did America avoid a Great Depression in 1920 without increasing the deficit, if the The Great Depression was caused by not increasing the deficit?  That doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.  Bad economics does not make sense.

3.  I’m too bored to discuss the ridiculous idea that human slaughter is good for an economy.  You are taking the Broken Window Fallacy and extrapolating it into the Broken Country Fallacy to believe such nonsense.  Like I said, bad economics does not make sense.

4.  That brings us to “sticky wages.”  If I take money from Paul to pay Peter to dig a ditch, Peter no longer has a sticky wage problem.  But what happened to Paul?  And what happens to the value of all wages when you engage in public works projects?  All wages, in the long run, will lose their purchasing power as the value of the dollar plummets.  This is why FDR had to take America off the gold standard, by confiscating private gold holdings in 1933, and then resetting the standard at $35.  (That’s right, an American President stole his citizens’ private gold holdings and yet historians hail him as a hero. Strange.) Everyone’s standard of living went down.  That’s what hapens when you rob Paul to employ Peter. Say it again, bad economics does not make sense. 

Can you tell that Keynesianism bores me?  It’s like studying witch craft.  It’s exciting for the first few minutes, but then you realize the whole thing is kinda silly and the witch doctor takes his practice a little too seriously.  It stops being cute.

Which brings us back full circle.  Do you understand now why Keynesians like DeLong believe we should be running huge deficits, that Obama is not doing enough, and why they hate the current Republican obstructionism?  Do you get why Ron Paul and libertarians, particularly free market supporters like our friends at Mises and Cafe Hayek, consistently draw their most hateful venom?

I get it. I’ve had enough of Keynesianism.

David Burns

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Posted in Economy, Government, Historic Analysis, Public Policies | No Comments »

Peak Oil: Did You Know?

Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010

Did you know that U.S government technocrats have been predicting the end of oil production since oil was first discovered in America in Titusville, Pennsylvania in 1866?

In 1866, shortly after the Pennsylvania discovery, the U.S. Revenue Commission told that nation that once oil production ended in America, as it expected, there would be no need to worry about the availability of “synthetics.”

In 1909, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) warned that if the U.S. petroleum industry continued “the present rate of increase in production, the supply would be exhausted by about 1935.”

In 1922, the same agency forecast that oil supplies would dry up by 1942 at the latest.

In 1885, the USGS said there was little or no chance of finding oil in California.

In 1891, the USGS said there was little or no chance of finding oil in Texas.

In 1908, the USGS forecast the maximum future oil supply as 22.5 billion barrels.

In 1914, the U.S. Bureau of Mines warned that there were only 5.7 billion barrels of oil left.

In 1939, the U.S. Department of the Interior predicted that the United States would run out of oil by 1952.

In 1949, the Secretary of the Interior warned that the “end of U.S. oil supplies is in sight.”

In 1951, the U.S. Department of the Interior revised their prediction that oil supplies would run out by 1964.

In 1947, the Department of State warned that “sufficient oil cannot be found in the U.S.”

Is Peak Oil a valid theory?
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Tags: Department of Energy, Energy, Gasoline, Jimmy Carter, Oil, Peak Oil, Petroleum, Production, William E. Simon
Posted in Business, Economy, Government, Historic Analysis, Public Policies | No Comments »

What is an Olympic Gold Medal Worth?

Saturday, February 27th, 2010

“Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value — ZERO.” – Voltaire (1694-1778)

The world champion athletes at the Winter Olympics receive gold, silver, and bronze medals that contain roughly the same amounts of metal as the last Summer Olympics.

  • A gold medal contains 550 grams of silver and is layered with just 6 grams of gold.
  • A silver medal has 509 grams of silver and about 41 grams of copper.
  • The bronze medals likely contain about 450 grams of copper and 50 grams of mostly tin and zinc.

At current market prices, a gold medal is exchangeable for about $494, a silver for about $260, and a bronze for just $3. If the gold medal was solid gold with the same mass, it would be exchangeable for almost $20,000.
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Tags: Copper, Currency, Dollar, Federal Reserve, Franklin Roosevelt, Gold, Great Depression, Money, Olympics, Precious Metals, S&P 500, Silver, Stocks
Posted in Current Events, Economy, Historic Analysis, Investing, Public Policies | 1 Comment »

When It Comes to Deflation, You Are Walking Into a Trap

Friday, February 26th, 2010

There is a buzz going through the Interwebs. Deflation is back, they say.  The core CPI numbers declined for the first time since 1982, down 0.1%

I’m going to discuss 5 topics today so let’s dive right in.

1  Why Deflationists are always wrong.
2. Why deflation, in normal circumstances, is a great thing.
3. Why the CPI is a useless statistic
4. A realistic assessment of current price levels
5. Why the Federal Reserve wants you to worry your poor little head about a 0.1% drop in price.

Why Deflationists are always wrong

According to deflationists, falling prices are right around the corner.  The inflationists, on the other hand, predict rising prices but often say that the rise may not come for some time.  You won’t hear a deflationist predicting prices falling by massive amounts.  They can’t tell you how long it will last or how severe it will be.  You never hear the term “mass deflation.”
Read the rest of this entry »

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Tags: Austrian Economics, banking, Bubble, Capitalism, Consumer Price Index, CPI, Deflation, Free Market, Gary North, Inflation, Murray Rothbard
Posted in Business, Current Events, Economy, Government, Historic Analysis, Public Policies | No Comments »

That Pesky First Amendment

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

Enjoy!

Fight the Power,

Nicholas (aka Dare)

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Tags: Barack Obama, Bilderberg, Constitution, First Amendment, Hate Speech, New World Order, Petition, Ridiculous
Posted in Current Events, Media, Public Policies | No Comments »

Is the Dollar a Ponzi Scheme?

Tuesday, January 12th, 2010

Ponzi scheme – a fraudulent investment operation that returns assets to the defrauded from assets they previously loaned to the scheme’s operators or assets paid by subsequent newer “investors” rather than from any actual profit earned

While it is (comparatively) well-known that the US dollar, while a currency, is a solely an instrument of credit issued by the Federal Reserve. All holders of dollars – including myself and most readers of this article – are in debt to the Federal Reserve. Now, this debt is really phantom debt, but the key really is printed on each dollar, more properly known as a Federal Reserve Note: “This note is legal tender for all debts, public and private.” (1)

The total federal debt issued was $11.933 trillion dollars at the end of fiscal year 2009 in September per the Treasury Department, an increase of $1.9 trillion from 2008. (page 37/123) This debt will continue to increase every year until the monetary system collapses due (just in part) to the compounding “miracle” of interest rates. Federal debt is bought at auction by primary dealers (Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, etc.) and “resold” to the FED, which then inflates the money supply by creating new dollars, or “injecting liquidity.” The FED can also “inject liquidity” by purchasing assets, such as toxic mortgage debt or even company stock like AIG or GM. Individual community banks, whether Citibank, Bank of America, or small local banks and credit unions, can also create new dollars with the fractional reserve system, which is can be viewed graphically here. However, a proof I wrote demonstrates that fractional reserve banking broke down years ago, and can be more aptly named as the “no-reserve lending” system.
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Tags: China, Currency, Fiat Money, Free Market, Gold, Legal Tender, Money, ponzi scheme, Treasury Department
Posted in Business, Current Events, Economy, Government, Historic Analysis, Investing, Public Policies | 1 Comment »

The Next Defense – Nullification of the Health Care Tax

Sunday, January 10th, 2010

“It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.” – C.S. Lewis

“In questions of powers, then, let no more be heard of confidence in man, but bind him down from mischief by the chains of the Constitution.” – Thomas Jefferson, from the Virginia Resolution of 1798

Last month both the House and Senate passed two very dissimilar bills with the same purpose – to tax the American people around $900 billion more, and intervene government bureaucrats into the private lives of each man, woman, and child. Congress is currently working out the differences, my prediction is that the bill will be quite the Frankenstein after the pork is added.

As I painstakingly laid out in my health care plank last summer, its unintended consequences will worsen the quality of care and affordability of health care.  I believe the TRUE issue at stake is affordability and cost - if an MRI cost $200 instead of $3,000, it would be a lot less imperative to suggest  drastic changes like socialized medicine.  The TRUE root cause is government-sponsored insurance cartels and quality-depleting, cost-increasing legislation such as the HMO Act of 1973.  After all, President Nixon was told “all the incentives [of HMOs] are toward less medical care, because the less care they give them, the more money they make and all the incentives run the right way.”
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Tags: Constitution, Health Care, health care sharing ministries, Hospitals, James Madison, Nancy Pelosi, Social Security, States, The Kentucky Resolutions of 1798, the virginia resolution of 1798, Thomas Jefferson
Posted in Business, Current Events, Government, Historic Analysis, Public Policies | No Comments »

Guns or Health Care?

Saturday, January 2nd, 2010

“We can do without butter, but, despite all our love of peace, not without arms.  One cannot shoot with butter, but with guns.” — Joseph Goebbels, Nazi Germany’s Reichminister of Propaganda

Throughout time, governments have strong tendencies to simultaneously splurge on both domestic spending and the more sinister business of warfare. This is referred to as the “guns versus butter” economic model. “Butter” is synonymous with domestic spending, while “guns” is synonymous with military spending. As with any economic goods or services, there is always scarcity of labor, machines, raw materials, land, et cetera. Individuals find it very easy to understand that if you want to spend 100% of one’s resources on “butter,” no “guns” can be purchased or vice versa; there is always a trade-off.  Steel can be formed into either a refrigerator or a tank; it can not be used for both.
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Tags: andrew carnegie, Bailouts, Constitution, Corporatism, Federal Reserve, food stamps, great society, habitat for humanity, Health Care, lyndon johnson, Medicare, red cross, Stimulus Package, United Nations, vietnam war
Posted in Business, Current Events, Economy, Foreign Policy, Government, Historic Analysis, Public Policies | 4 Comments »

Health Care is NOT a Right

Tuesday, December 29th, 2009

In light of the looming Senate vote and my recent announcement to only accept my district’s median household income for my congressional salary, and to make a charitable donation to local non-profit hospitals, I’d like to review this subject once more.  For more details, please read my health care plank, and to completely debunk the incumbent’s claim that health care legislation is constitutional, please read “To Nancy Pelosi on Health Care – Are YOU Serious?”

In the Bill of Rights of the Soviet Union, they were honest about health care – it states that “citizens of the USSR have the right to health protection.” This document also stipulated Soviet citizens have the “right to work” not longer than 41 hours in a workweek, the “right to rest and leisure,” the “right to education,” the “right to enjoy cultural benefits.” (Source) To find out how well this worked out for the Soviets, try reading Dr. Yuri Maltsev’s article “What Soviet Medicine Teaches Us.”  Even today, Russia’s life expectancy for males is just 59 years, while in the US it is 73 years.
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Tags: Congress, Health Care, Medicine, Rights, Soviet Union
Posted in Current Events, Government, Public Policies | 1 Comment »

The Government’s “War” on Main Street

Saturday, December 5th, 2009

The War on Poverty… the War on Drugs… the War on Terror… now we have the government’s “War” on Main Street. How to improve the economy and why the government is taking the exact opposite actions to destroy Main Street as a bad case of the “Seen and the Unseen” strikes the Lehigh Valley.

This talk was originally delivered to a Campaign of Liberty chapter on December 3, 2009.  Video will be available shortly.

Today President Obama will tour Allentown, Pennsylvania, in my home congressional district as part of a “Main Street Tour” to show his concern for economic plight of the masses. Many of the people I have spoken with while campaigning innately realize that government is at fault – or at least complain a lot about how the government should “fix” the economy. Unfortunately, many do not have enough of a grasp of economics to understand exactly how the government is ruining their lives and their childrens’ lives. Speaking for myself, about 2 years ago I would have been included in this category. This is no surprise as most of the press and educational system has been hijacked by the disciples of Lord Keynes (the Keynesians) and the socialist Karl Marx for the past century.

The late economist from the Austrian school and NY Times columnist Henry Hazlitt wrote a series of easy-to-understand economic lessons in the 1940s in what was later published as Economics in One Lesson. Hazlitt warned of the dangers of what he termed the “seen and the unseen.” Let me give a rather harsh but true example.

Last week one local paper published a story about a local hardware store on Main Street in Nazareth going out of business. I grew up in Nazareth, and this store was there my whole life. The owners were not able to afford the rent, tried moving down the street for cheaper rent, but were not able to save the company.

On the exact same day, another local paper published a story about the Obama stimulus plan. They explain how $7.8 million was awarded to the private Lehigh University for research on hot lava, smarter electric wheelchairs, and Ice Age climate shifts in Alaska. This amount was more than the amounts allotted to Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton, the three major cities in the Lehigh Valley. Before I continue – I am a proud alumni with an excellent education in chemical engineering provided by Lehigh.

So, what is going on here? It is nothing more than Hazlitt’s seen and the unseen at work. What is normally seen is the government spending on government pet projects, whether the Hoover Dam, hot lava research, banker bailouts of Goldman Sachs, or even new roads and bridges. Some government projects may even have some utility, like new roads or bridges. These are held up to the population as examples of how the government is doing its best to help you – with your taxes, that is.

However, what is typically NOT SEEN is local hardware stores failing, or other businesses who fail to get listed on the government’s gravy train list. What is NOT SEEN is those living on fixed incomes like social security whose standards of living are affected the harshest by inflation, the businesses that never started due to government interventions. What is NEVER SEEN is the employment these new businesses would be providing and, most especially, what is not seen is simply what would happen if the people were not plundered by government in the first place, either in the form of payroll taxes or the insidious hidden tax of inflation.

Of course, realistically speaking in today’s America, what is seen is the looting of the public treasury by the special interest lobbyists who, to a large extent, control Congress, the FED, and the rest of DC. We must instead focus on the general interest of society over the long run. We must remember that government exists to protect liberty, not to redistribute wealth, nor to grant special privileges, nor to interfere with the lives of individuals and their actions.  Read the rest of this entry »

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Tags: Constitution, Currency, Federal Reserve, Henry Hazlitt, Keynes, Money, Recession, Socialism, Taxes, Thomas DiLorenzo, Welfare, World War I, World War II
Posted in Current Events, Government, Historic Analysis, Monetary Policy, Public Policies | 1 Comment »

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