When It Comes to Deflation, You Are Walking Into a Trap
Friday, February 26th, 2010
There is a buzz going through the Interwebs. Deflation is back, they say. The core CPI numbers declined for the first time since 1982, down 0.1%
I’m going to discuss 5 topics today so let’s dive right in.
1 Why Deflationists are always wrong.
2. Why deflation, in normal circumstances, is a great thing.
3. Why the CPI is a useless statistic
4. A realistic assessment of current price levels
5. Why the Federal Reserve wants you to worry your poor little head about a 0.1% drop in price.
Why Deflationists are always wrong
According to deflationists, falling prices are right around the corner. The inflationists, on the other hand, predict rising prices but often say that the rise may not come for some time. You won’t hear a deflationist predicting prices falling by massive amounts. They can’t tell you how long it will last or how severe it will be. You never hear the term “mass deflation.”
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The total federal debt issued was $11.933 trillion dollars at the end of fiscal year 2009 in September per the Treasury Department, an increase of $1.9 trillion from 2008. (
Last month both the House and Senate passed two very dissimilar bills with the same purpose – to tax the American people around $900 billion more, and intervene government bureaucrats into the private lives of each man, woman, and child. Congress is currently working out the differences, my prediction is that the bill will be quite the Frankenstein after the pork is added.
Throughout time, governments have strong tendencies to simultaneously splurge on both domestic spending and the more sinister business of warfare. This is referred to as the “guns versus butter” economic model. “Butter” is synonymous with domestic spending, while “guns” is synonymous with military spending. As with any economic goods or services, there is